Browsing by Author "Jalali, Marjan S."
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- An idiosyncratic decision support system for credit risk analysis of small and medium-sized enterprisesPublication . Gonçalves, Tânia S. H.; Ferreira, Fernando A. F.; Jalali, Marjan S.; Meiduté-Kavaliauskiené, IevaSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are currently considered an important driving force of economic growth. Several studies have been developed to analyse this issue and, in particular, to assess the credit risk of SMEs. Most of these applications, however, share the same methodological limitations, such as the manner by which criteria are selected, or the methods used for calculating the weights between them. Based on the integrated use of cognitive mapping techniques and the Interactive Multiple Criteria Decision Making (TODIM) approach, this study aims to create an idiosyncratic decision support system for the identification of multiple criteria and the calculation of their respective weights (i.e. the trade-offs) in the evaluation of SME credit risk. The results show that the model created in this study allows for simple and straightforward credit concession decisions, facilitating the evaluation of SME credit applications through more informed and transparent risk assessments. Practical implications, strengths and weaknesses of the proposed framework are analysed and discussed.
- For sale… but for how long? a methodological proposal for estimating time-on-the-marketPublication . Martins, Vanda C. S.; Filipe, Marlene N. M.; Ferreira, Fernando A. F.; Jalali, Marjan S.; António, Nelson J. S.Residential real estate assumes crucial importance in a country's socioeconomic development. It is an important field of study, and much work has gone into better understanding the sector and the factors determining sales within it, such as time-on-the-market (TOM). TOM can be influenced by a variety of elements; a fact that in effect raises a lot of issues, because these determinants are often interpreted in an ambiguous or unstructured way. This study aims to bring greater accuracy and structure to our understanding of these factors, by showing that the integrated use of cognitive mapping with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can give rise to a conceptually coherent and empirically valid framework to calculate TOM indices in the residential real estate market. Because it takes into account both tangible and intangible characteristics of a house, this measurement framework also boosts strategic planning support and allows for more informed business planning, which we believe can be a real contribution to the development of the real estate market. The practical implications and limitations of this evaluation system are also discussed.
- A fuzzy knowledge-based framework for risk assessment of residential real estate investmentsPublication . Ribeiro, Mónica I. F.; Ferreira, Fernando A. F.; Jalali, Marjan S.; Meiduté-Kavaliauskiené, IevaRisk analysis of residential real estate investments requires careful analysis of certain variables (or determinants). Because real estate is a key sector for economic and social development, this risk analysis is seen as critical in supporting decision processes relating to buying or selling residential properties, partly due to the pressures caused by the current economic environment. This study aims to develop a conceptual reference model for risk assessment of residential real estate using fuzzy cognitive mapping. This fuzzy model allows cause-and-effect relationships between determinants to be identified and better understood, which in turn allows for better informed investment decisions. The results show that the use of cognitive maps reduces the number of omitted criteria and favors learning with regard to how the criteria relate to each other, holding great potential and versatility in structuring complex decision problems. Practical implications, strengths and weaknesses of our proposal are discussed.
- A judgment-based risk assessment framework for consumer loansPublication . Ferreira, Fernando A. F.; Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė, Ieva; Zavadskas, Edmundas K.; Jalali, Marjan S.; Catarino, Sandra M. J.Credit to personal consumption is an important activity of the financial system and crucial to the socioeconomic development of a country. It is important, therefore, that the methods and techniques used to evaluate consumer credit risk be as efficient and informative as possible, in order to strengthen decisions to approve or reject credit and promote sustainable economic growth. This study aims to create a multiple criteria expert system which integrates cognitive maps and the measuring attractiveness by a categorical-based evaluation technique (MACBETH) to create a complementary framework for consumer credit risk assessment. The results show that this integrated approach allows the evaluation process of consumer credit risk to be more informed and transparent, providing value for the evaluation processes of this type of credit application as a result of the privileged contact established with a panel of credit analysts. Advantages, limitations, and managerial implications are also discussed.
- A metacognitive decision making based-framework for bank customer loyalty measurement and managementPublication . Ferreira, Fernando A. F.; Jalali, Marjan S.; Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė, Ieva; Viana, Bianca A. C. P.Bank customer loyalty is becoming a priority concern for banking institutions, as a means of gradually increasing complementary margins and eliminating the lack of liquidity caused by the current economic climate. Following a top down process, this focus culminates at the branch level, where banks’ front office employees are seen as a driving-force for building customer loyalty. At the same time, however, the difficulty in identifying and operationalizing the factors or determinants that most contribute to creating and maintaining bank customer loyalty has long been recognized. In this sense, based on the integrated use of cognitive maps and measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique (MACBETH), this study proposes a multiple criteria framework for bank customer loyalty measurement and management. The results show that our framework allows bank customers with higher rates of customer loyalty to be identified and, from a benchmarking perspective, indicates what best practices should be followed to boost long-term relationships. Implications for scholars and practitioners are discussed.